Analysis Paper

Geopolitical Encirclement Combined with Environmental Injustice

The Atarot Dual Plan’s Assault on Palestinian Viability in Northern Jerusalem

An analysis paper by the Jerusalem Human Rights Consortium (JHRC) and the Arab Center for Alternative Planning

The State of Israel and the Jerusalem Municipality are concurrently promoting two massive and incompatible development projects — the Atarot Settlement Plan and a Waste-to-Energy (W2E) facility — in the strategically critical Atarot/Qalandiya region of northern East Jerusalem.

While structurally distinct, these projects are geographically intertwined, advancing Israeli demographic and municipal control over occupied territory at the documented expense of the surrounding Palestinian communities.

The simultaneous promotion of residential development and hazardous industrial infrastructure in the same location generates a profound conflict, violating basic principles of urban planning, escalating environmental risks, and deepening existing political and legal crises.

Population figure according to the Israeli Ministry of Housing.

I.The Atarot Settlement Plan

The Atarot Settlement Initiative (Plan No. 0764936-101) represents an accelerated effort in Israeli settlement expansion in East Jerusalem, targeting the land of the former Qalandiya Airport. The plan, submitted for approval on 3 December 2020 and actively advanced in 2025, is a crucial element of Israel’s broader strategy to consolidate control over East Jerusalem.

A.Scope, location, and demographic intent

The plan outlines the construction of 9,000 residential units on 1,243 dunams of land, designed to accommodate an expected population of 30,000 settlers, according to the Israeli Ministry of Housing. It includes 800 protected housing units primarily intended for the Haredi (Ultra-Orthodox) Jewish population. Beyond housing, the plan incorporates extensive commercial zones, employment areas, public institutions such as schools and healthcare facilities, and parks — all intended exclusively to serve Israeli settlers.

The proposed settlement is strategically located on the grounds of Qalandiya Airport, which is geographically contiguous with the Atarot Industrial Zone. The area borders several densely populated Palestinian neighbourhoods, including Beit Hanina, Kufr ‘Aqab, Al-Ram, and Qalandiya al-Balad. The development is positioned to create a large Israeli-only urban block at the northern entrance of Jerusalem, tightening spatial restrictions on the surrounding Palestinian neighbourhoods and deepening the physical fragmentation of Palestinian communities in the area.

B.Planning status and environmental findings

The Atarot settlement plan was discussed at the Jerusalem District Planning Committee meeting in January 2025, which reviewed critical aspects including security, land ownership, and pollution. The proposed security measures included limitations on construction distance from outer boundaries and the erection of substantial protective fences, which the committee deemed adequate for future settlers. The potential impact of increased military presence and expanded surveillance on neighbouring Palestinian communities was not addressed.

Crucially, the statutory review highlighted severe environmental deficiencies at the proposed settlement site:

1. Soil contamination. The land of the former airport suffers from significant soil pollution. Environmental inspection revealed particularly alarming findings, such as cobalt concentrations vastly exceeding the regulatory threshold. Elevated levels of manganese and thallium were also detected. These findings strongly suggest existing industrial pollution and underscore serious environmental risks.
2. Air pollution. The neighbouring Atarot Industrial Zone is documented as a major source of air pollution. The committee reviewed data showing that PM10 (particulate matter) concentrations in the area consistently exceed the regulatory ceiling. This pollution, confirmed to be industrial in origin by the sharp drop in levels over the weekend shutdown, disproportionately affects vulnerable Palestinian communities nearby.

II.The Waste-to-Energy (W2E) Facility

The Waste-to-Energy project involves establishing a large-scale municipal waste incineration plant designed to burn waste to produce energy, primarily serving the waste-disposal needs of the broader Jerusalem metropolis. Its location is shown in Sketch 1 above.

A.Project scope, location, and legal context

The project was officially accelerated by Government Decision 2025/3067, based on Decision 1836 (5 June 2024), aimed at strengthening the resilience of Jerusalem and improving waste treatment in the metropolis.

The facility is planned for construction on lands near the Atarot Industrial Zone, immediately adjacent to the Palestinian village of Qalandiya al-Balad and the proposed Atarot settlement. This requires the confiscation of approximately 130 dunams of Palestinian land. The project has already resulted in the Israel Land Authority delivering eviction orders to families in Qalandiya al-Balad, demanding they vacate within 20 days and facing the loss of their farmland and homes.

The legal foundation for the land seizure relies on the Finance Minister’s expropriation notice of 27 May 2025, which reactivated three old expropriation orders dating back to 1970 and 1982. While the plan is undergoing a 40-month statutory planning track — including a detailed Environmental Impact Assessment between months 18 and 30 — implementation is already underway, with land-expropriation and demolition notices issued.

B.Geopolitical manipulation and legal contestation

The W2E facility plan is politically and legally contentious. Government Decision 3012 (May 2025) explicitly instructed the Defense Ministry to relocate the Separation Barrier northwards. Rerouting the wall aims to annex the facility site officially into Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries, as defined by Israeli authorities.

The displacement of the barrier route, originally claimed to follow security “needs,” is an act of de facto forced annexation. It suggests that the route is flexible according to Israeli settlement needs rather than strict security necessity, reinforcing an unequal territorial arrangement.

Furthermore, the legal basis for designating the land for a W2E facility is false. The land was originally expropriated decades ago for purposes such as “security” or “industrial use.” Its subsequent conversion to a harmful, contaminating municipal waste facility serving Israeli urban centres constitutes an unlawful change of purpose under international humanitarian law, which forbids an occupier from using occupied land for the benefit of its own population. Authorities are using Amendment No. 3 to the Land Ordinance to convert the land into general state land usable for any purpose — an amendment originally intended to give the State ownership over vast swaths of land confiscated from Palestinians inside Israel without any identified objective.

The W2E facility, positioned adjacent to the Atarot settlement, must be understood within the broader context of the Atarot Settlement Plan, as the region already suffers from dangerously high pollution levels.

1. 3 Dec 2020Atarot Settlement Plan (No. 0764936-101) submitted for approval.
2. 5 Jun 2024Government Decision 1836 — the basis for accelerating the W2E facility under Decision 2025/3067.
3. Jan 2025Jerusalem District Planning Committee reviews the settlement plan, including soil and air-pollution findings.
4. May 2025Government Decision 3012 instructs the Defense Ministry to reroute the Separation Barrier northwards.
5. 27 May 2025Finance Minister’s expropriation notice reactivates orders from 1970 and 1982.
6. UnderwayEviction orders delivered to families in Qalandiya al-Balad, with 20 days to vacate.

III.Analysis of Conflict and Incompatibility

One of several planning challenges posed by the Atarot settlement and the W2E facility is their mutual incompatibility. Located in the same geographic area, the two projects generate insurmountable contradictions in urban planning, public health, and geopolitical stability, making their simultaneous advancement deeply problematic.

A.The planning paradox: residential vs. hazardous industry

The core conflict lies in the illogical placement of a major pollution source immediately next to a dense residential zone. Standard urban planning requires significant buffer zones between hazardous industry and population centres — a principle entirely violated by the Atarot dual proposal.

1. Acute public health risks from incineration. Incinerators are major stationary sources of air pollution, releasing hazardous compounds even with modern filtration.
   • Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs): combustion releases highly toxic, carcinogenic pollutants that accumulate in the food chain and the human body, posing severe health risks to Qalandiya, the surrounding Palestinian townships, and even Atarot settlers.
   • Fine particulate matter (PM2.5): ultrafine particles penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream, exacerbating chronic respiratory diseases such as asthma and COPD, and cardiovascular events — particularly for a population already exposed to high pollution.
   • Heavy metals: emissions include mercury, lead, and cadmium, posing severe neurotoxic risks, especially to children in nearby residential areas.
2. Toxic waste byproducts. Incineration does not eliminate waste; it converts it. Up to 20–30% of the volume remains as highly toxic “fly ash,” concentrated with heavy metals and dioxins. The plan necessitates transporting and landfilling this hazardous ash, posing a grave threat of leaching into the soil and the Mountain Aquifer — a shared water source for both populations — if mishandled.

Placing a high-temperature waste facility within metres of population centres violates the very logic of building or maintaining healthy neighbourhoods and densely built townships.

B.Cumulative environmental degradation and environmental injustice

The simultaneous projects significantly amplify environmental hazards in an area already struggling with chronic pollution, creating an unacceptable cumulative impact.

1. Oversaturation of pollutants. The Atarot Industrial Zone is already a documented pollution hotspot. Official data presented in January 2025 showed PM10 levels surpassing the regulatory ceiling:
   PM10 (µg/m³)

   Regulatory ceiling130

   Measured, up to153
   This heavy existing load, combined with severe soil contamination on the settlement land — cobalt levels nearly 100-fold above standard — means the environment is already degraded. Adding a massive industrial incinerator to a setting already burdened by traffic and cement production creates an “oversaturated” pollution environment, likely trapping smog in the residential valleys of Beit Hanina and Kufr ‘Aqab.
2. Environmental externalisation and the “sacrifice zone.” The W2E project extends a policy of environmental externalisation. The waste-management benefits flow to Israeli urban centres, while the burdens — air pollution, odours, and increased heavy-vehicle traffic — fall almost exclusively on Palestinian communities such as Qalandiya al-Balad and Kufr ‘Aqab. The location designates the Qalandiya/Atarot seam zone as a “sacrifice zone.” These neighbourhoods are particularly vulnerable, lacking the political leverage to object to the plan or enforce safety regulations on an Israeli-run facility. Israeli planning authorities are advancing both projects without assessing their cumulative impacts on nearby Palestinian neighbourhoods.

C.Geopolitical conflict and erosion of future viability

The dual development proposal is a strategic move that fundamentally threatens the viability of a two-state solution and the future status of East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.

1. Blockade on Palestinian capital infrastructure. Qalandiya Airport is the only site in the area capable of serving as an international airport for a future Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. Establishing a Jewish-only residential settlement on this site permanently removes this critical asset from a potential future Palestinian state, undermining both connectivity and sovereignty.
2. Strategic encirclement and fragmentation. The Atarot settlement and the W2E facility contribute to the increasingly comprehensive encirclement of Palestinian communities in northern East Jerusalem. By creating a large Israeli urban block and using municipal infrastructure to cement control, the plans deepen the physical and political fragmentation of Palestinian neighbourhoods and restrict their future expansion. The required rerouting of the Separation Barrier for the W2E facility reinforces this objective, using utility needs to justify de facto annexation.

D.Legal and socioeconomic objections

The projects exacerbate socioeconomic disparities and violate international legal norms regarding occupied territory.

1. Inequitable land allocation. The projects represent the “theft of precious land.” The land is being used for an Ultra-Orthodox Jewish settlement and a waste facility, ignoring the acute housing crisis and extreme overcrowding in surrounding Palestinian communities — some reaching 60,000 to 150,000 residents in small areas such as Kufr ‘Aqab. The development reinforces economic and social segregation, as the commercial hubs and infrastructure are designed exclusively to serve Israeli settlers and interests.
2. Violations of international law. Both the settlement and the waste facility contravene multiple international legal instruments. They violate the Fourth Geneva Convention (Article 49), which prohibits the transfer of the occupying power’s civilian population into occupied territory. They also contravene the International Court of Justice advisory opinion of July 2024, which found Israel’s presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, to be unlawful. The planned land seizures and use of expropriated land for the occupier’s benefit violate international property rights and the Hague Regulations (1907).